BTC Is Setting Up For A Major Move

The bounce scenario that we laid out last week turned out to be wrong – and that’s part of the game. 

As we’ve stated before, the market doesn’t “listen” to technical analysis. 

Rather, technical analysis can be used as a tool to show past trends. If those trends are based on human behavior – the most reliable indicator of all – we can use them as a tool to gauge the likelihood of various future outcomes. So, that’s exactly what we’re doing!

The outcome that we favored in our last update was a bounce in the near-term, followed by a retest of the daily 200sma. That didn’t happen, so we’re adjusting our expectations.

Now, let’s take a look at where BTC currently stands.

After breaking out to the downside below the MA range last Friday, BTC found support at the range we outlined last week ($74.5K to $76K), which is marked by the green lines in the chart below. This range captures BTC’s 2025 price bottom, as well as the top of the range it traded in from February through mid-May:

After BTC’s price briefly dropped below the range on Friday, it bounced back over the weekend. However, it then met resistance at the daily 13ema (the yellow MA in the chart below). 

Different MA’s serve as support and resistance areas at different times – so, it’s never a guarantee that any specific MA will do so in any specific situation. However, after tracking this MA range for years across hundreds of assets, the two most consistent support/resistance MAs are the 13ema (yellow) and the 55ema (purple) – even across different time frames. 

In this case, the 13ema was a strong support level on the way up, and it’s proving to be a strong resistance level on the way down:

Recognizing that this MA was a support level on the way up, we listed it in our Telegram group back on May 18th as the first level of resistance if BTC were to continue its rally:

Since each one of these resistance levels is trending down, the prices have since changed:

This means that BTC is not only fighting price resistance, it’s fighting time as well – as the MA’s trend down, BTC’s price will trend down as well until it’s able to break above. If it fails repeatedly, there could be a capitulation moment caused by a liquidation event of long positions.

While we had expected BTC to show more strength by now, it’s crucial to keep an open mind and look at each potential scenario. Here are several things to keep in mind:

So, what do we do with this information? 

As we stated in the beginning of the article, we use it to gauge the likelihood of future outcomes. 

In terms of support, we have the $74.5-76K range. 

Each day, the 13ema draws closer to that range. Once they converge, BTC will likely make a decisive move in either direction, which will show where momentum lies. 

If it’s to the downside, we can expect a move below $70K, possibly retesting the 2026 lows.

If it’s to the upside, the daily 200sma will be the next level of resistance, and the amount of momentum behind BTC will likely be challenged there.

By this time next week, it’s likely that BTC will have made its first move – above the 13ema or below the support range. 

While BTC is down almost 3% since our last update, the DeFi20 Index has been extremely resilient – posting a marginal gain of 0.5%. This resilience was also reflected by the broader altcoin market, as OTHERS (the total crypto market cap excluding the top-10 assets) was also up marginally for the week.

Here’s a look at the Index’s leaders and laggards since our last update:

Lastly, we’ll cover three DeFi20 tokens which are showing notable activity: FF, MORPHO, and ZRO.

FF and MORPHO have both shown impressive strength over the past week, holding the top two spot in the Leaders graphic above.

ZRO, on the other hand, has been a poor performer in the Index. However, we could see a momentum shift in the coming days as its price approaches a key support level.

FF 

After over a week of battling resistance at the 200dma, FF finally broke above it yesterday, and its sharp rally has continued today. As expected, this rally was not simply a short-lived event like the one in April; it’s proven to be a powerful and sustainable move higher.

FF continues to be one of the strongest components in the DeFi20 Index, and it’s now up nearly 70% for the month!

MORPHO 

Despite broader market weakness, MORPHO has bounced hard and even made a marginal new high for 2026. Back in March, we noted MORPHO’s tendency to perform well during market weakness, and that trend seems to be repeating here. As the crypto market matures, it would make sense that core financial infrastructure like MORPHO would act as a safe haven; its user base includes many professional asset managers who are likely to continue using the platform in any market environment.

In the weekly chart below, another trend stands out: MORPHO has broken above the resistance range that marked the upside for most of the second half of 2025 and more recently in Q2 2026. If it can flip this range into support, the path to all-time highs becomes much clearer.

ZRO 

ZRO is sitting at its major support level of $1.20-$1.25, marked by the green lines in the chart below. This marks the bottom  

While ZRO was a standout performer in Q1 – specifically by not making a new low in February along with most of the crypto market – its performance in Q2 has been very poor. In fact, it’s the worst-performing component of the DeFi20 Index thus far. So, it’s crucial that this level holds, or a further breakout to the downside becomes a likely scenario.

That’s all for this week’s Mid-Week Market Check!

If anyone has recommendations on projects to cover or positions to add to our portfolio, or market insights to share, we’d love to hear them! Just leave a comment below or send us a DM on X.

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