BTC Enters The Bounce Zone

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As expected, BTC has corrected since our last update.

And it’s spent the past few days testing a key support level. 

At the time of writing, BTC has bounced off of the $76K level and is currently trading at $77.5K. While there are a few resistance areas above, the current setup is very favorable to attempt another rally in the short term. 

As it remains in this area of support, there are 2 bullish factors that create the potential for a sustained bounce from here:

On Monday and Tuesday, BTC tested the bottom of its daily MA range (the purple MA), which we had previously noted was a key level of support. 

After briefly dipping below the purple MA on both days, it’s attempting a bounce today, almost exactly where we expected it to.

Another contributing factor to this support level is the action within the MACD. 

The MACD consists of 2 moving averages (we use the 13 and 21). The shorter-term MA (in this case, the 13-day) is known as the “fast” moving average. In the chart below, this is represented by the blue line in the MACD section. 

Based on our experience, the MACD is best at signaling support when 3 factors converge:

All 3 of those factors are converging today, and combined with the support at the bottom of the MA range, we couldn’t ask for a better setup for a bounce!

Of course, technical analysis doesn’t “tell” the price what to do – it simply provides information about the current price pattern, which can indicate a shift in momentum. So, we need to be prepared for any situation. 

If BTC’s bounce attempt fails, there’s even more support below the MA range.

Slightly below the MA range, a crucial support range that BTC must hold to maximize the chance of a continued rally extends from $74.5K to $76K, represented by the green lines in the chart above. 

This range includes BTC’s 2025 lows, as well as the area where its price made decisive moves earlier this year:

As you can see, this range is also below the MA range. Ideally, the price will hold the MA range, but this support range gives it another opportunity to bounce in the short-term.

Finally, if BTC continues to drop below this support range, there’s a strong chance that it will re-test its 2026 lows. Right now, this does not appear to be a likely scenario – but our outlook will change according to any shift in price action.

CFG and ONDO

These two tokenization components of the DeFi20 Index are benefitting from strong uptrends in their MA ranges, possibly due to bullish sentiment around the imminent passing of the Clarity Act, which would benefit both from a fundamental perspective.

While CFG experienced a 30% correction from its brief 2026 high of $0.35, its price has stabilized over the past week. So far, this correction appears to simply be another higher low for CFG, as its MA range is still in a firm uptrend.

Earlier this month, ONDO broke above its 200dma for the first time in 7 months – now, this key MA is serving as an added layer of support within its MA range. Its price has bounced off the 200dma for back-to-back days after putting in a higher low, and looks ready to make a run at a higher high soon.

FF 

At first, it was easy to excuse FF’s recent rally as another temporary pump – this is typical behavior for illiquid altcoins. However, its strength during the broader market’s correction has been notable. It’s still up nearly 40% for the month, and its MA range has now fully lined up in a bullish formation.

However, FF is currently facing strong resistance at the 200dma; its price has been battling at this level for 6 days in a row, and while it’s temporarily broken above it each day, it has yet to close a daily candle above it. After such a quick rally, a period of consolidation like this is to be expected, and we’re watching for a break above the 200dma to begin the next leg of its rally. 

HYPE 

HYPE has not only rallied in defiance of this correction, but it’s also set a series of new highs for 2026 over the past several days. It’s now up over 30% for the month, and has pushed above $50 for the first time in nearly 7 months. 

A notable fact about this rally is that it came after negative news concerning potentially increased regulatory pressure on Hyperliquid. When the price moves in the opposite direction of news like this, it’s an extremely strong indicator that price will continue to move in that direction (one of our favorite traders, Jason Shapiro, calls this a “news failure event”). 

So, as soon as the price began to rally after the bad news came out, it was a signal that HYPE would likely soon break out to new 2026 highs.

JUP

While JUP had corrected over 30% from its recent high, it’s now making a strong bounce off the bottom of the MA range, and it’s currently the top-performing DeFi20 Index token of the day. 

Additionally, the MACD setup is extremely bullish, and JUP should continue to move higher barring a continued period of market-wide weakness.