Now, let’s get back to the main subject of this issue: BTC.

Today, I want to provide an update on where BTC stands in the current bear market, and what we can expect from here.

(If you prefer audio/video format, here is today’s YouTube video covering this topic).

TL;DR:

Since rallying off the July 1st low of ~$57,700, BTC has rallied about 15% and is now sitting at ~$65,900

At the time of the low, it was admittedly difficult for me to trust my original thesis that the bottom was close, and a lot of people were citing Strategy’s recent BTC sale as a reason that a vast amount of BTC supply was about to hit the market.

It became popular to call for a bottom around $36-40k, or even lower. 

Now, BTC sits over halfway between that low and the daily 200sma, where it notoriously topped out during the rally in May. 

The current rally is being seen as something to short, as the primary belief (at least on X) continues to be that we have one more leg down before the bear market ends.

But it’s important to keep in mind that, by definition, moving averages become easier to break as time goes by, simply because they trend with the underlying asset.

When BTC tested the daily 200sma in May, it was at 82k. Now, 2.5 months later, it's under 73k and moving down by ~1k/week. The more time goes by between tests, the greater the chance that BTC will break through. 

The following 3 indicators tell us that BTC is moving in a similar fashion to prior transition phases between bear and bull markets. These transitions take months to unfold – no asset goes from bear market to bull market overnight; it takes time for the emotions that ultimately drive prices to reset.

Let’s walk through all 3 indicators:

This indicator is triggered when BTC drops 20% below its daily 13ema and 40% below its daily 200sma. It’s only happened 5 times throughout BTC’s history – most recently on February 5, 2026.

As you can see in the chart above, the orange line marks its performance since it was triggered in February. 

In the 18 months following each trigger, BTC experienced rallies of 132.7% to 1,217%. 

When this indicator was triggered in February, it closed at $62,858 – and as we approach the 6-month mark, BTC is up ~4.8%.

Unlike the Capitulation Indicator, this one tracks BTC’s activity on a monthly chart. It’s triggered when BTC’s monthly 13ema crosses below its daily 200sma, which has only occurred 4 times since 2015 – most recently on April 30, 2026.

In the 18 months following each trigger, BTC rallied between 101.5% and 252.2%. 

When this indicator was triggered in April, BTC closed at $76,318 – and as we approach the 3-month mark, BTC is down ~13.6%, sitting in between its post-trigger performance from 2015 and 2022.

Like the MA Crossover Indicator, this indicator also tracks BTC on a monthly chart. 

The underlying mechanics of this indicator are a little bit more complex – put simply, it uses the MACD indicator to track momentum over 13 and 21-month periods. 

During long-term downtrends, it’s triggered when the short-term trend begins to decline at a slower rate than the long-term trend – this shows that BTC (or whichever asset it’s tracking) is experiencing exhaustion in its downtrend. The goal is to use this as an indicator for a potential long-term momentum shift.

Since 2015, this indicator has only triggered 4 times – most recently, it triggered on the same day as the MA Crossover Indicator: April 30, 2026.

In the 18 months following each trigger, BTC experienced rallies of 242.3% to 256.5%. 

Since the trigger date is the same as the prior indicator, BTC’s performance is the same – it’s down ~13.6% in ~3 months since April 30th.

Notably, the 13.6% decline marks the worst post-trigger performance at this point in the cycle. While it had an initial price decline in 2015 and 2022, in both cases it rallied back to break-even before the 80-day mark.

However, no two recoveries will be the same. In 2015, for example, BTC was down 13.4% on day 146 post-trigger – and ~2.5 months later, it had rallied ~80% to post a gain of 64.2% from the original price. Things can move fast, especially in crypto, and I wouldn’t count BTC out by any means.

When all of these indicators are considered, we can deduce some potential price targets based on their combined performance. 

Taking a conservative approach, let’s assume BTC rallies by 80% of the worst rally from each indicator over the same time period. 

Capitulation Indicator:

MA crossover:

MACD Momentum Shift:

Finally, we’re left with 3 price targets:

From here, we can take the average of the price and number of days to come up with a composite price target of: $157,826 on August 17th, 2027. That’s a return of 139.5% in about 13 months.

And for those wondering, if you take the minimum returns without the 20% discount, the composite price target would be $179,314 – a return of ~172.1% .

To wrap things up, it should go without saying that this is by no means a guarantee – the price of BTC (or any asset) doesn’t have to move in a certain way at any given time. However, we can use previous data to form a reasonable estimate for where BTC may be in the future – and that’s exactly what we’ve done today!

So, what do you think? Is this a reasonable target, or do you think it’s too bearish or too bullish? Let me know in the comments below, or on X, or in the new Telegram group! Only time will tell where BTC ends up.