Welcome to Mid-Week Market Check!

Every Wednesday, I’ll show you what I’m seeing in the crypto market as well as opportunities to earn yield using various onchain strategies.  

Each Mid-Week Market Check will include 3 sections:

  • Market Pulse — trends and observations in the current market

  • DeFi20 Tracker — measuring the DeFi20 Index performance against the broader market

  • Yield Spotlight — attractive onchain yields & how they work

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The crypto market has fallen back from its recent breakout attempt.

This can be viewed as part of a larger correction in risk-off markets, such as US stocks. 

In fact, since the start of the Iran war in early March, over $4.8T had been wiped out of the US stock market as of March 27th – more than twice the entire crypto market cap! The correction left no sector unaffected:

However, crypto was relatively stable in March compared to stocks:

  • Crypto market: +1.9%

  • Altcoin market: +0.4%

  • Nasdaq 100: -5%

  • S&P 500 (cap-weighted): -5.1%

  • Russell 2000: -5.2%

  • S&P 500 (equal-weighted): -6.4%

BTC: Caught in a range

From a daily perspective, BTC has largely been trading between the open and close prices of the February 5th capitulation candle, aside from the false breakout in mid-March.

As you can see in this chart, the midpoint of that range is right around $68K.

The $68K level has served as both support and resistance points over the past 4-5 weeks, and it’s where we currently sit. 

In late February, the price tested $68K but was held below. However, it did not break down below the bottom of the range.

So, what do we look for on the daily chart?

If price breaks back above $68K (which it’s attempting to do as I write this), confirms it as support, and then rallies back up towards the top of the range, that would be a very strong sign that demand is outweighing supply.

Is a long-term reversal brewing?

If we zoom out to BTC’s monthly chart, we can see that the price is sitting at a very important level.

Last week, I explained how I use MACD (the green/red bars at the bottom calculated using the difference between the 13 EMA and 21 EMA). 

When there’s a change in momentum during a longer MACD trend, the color shifts from dark to light. We have not seen it shift to light red yet, which happens when the shorter-term EMA (13) begins to fall at a slower rate than the longer-term EMA (21). In my own research, especially for monthly charts, this provides a valuable indication of price reversals.

So, the scenario I’m looking at here has the following characteristics:

  • Price has fallen over 50% from its peak 

  • Price has tested the purple MA (55 month EMA)

  • MACD is still negative but momentum has switched (has not happened yet, but could happen in April)

This scenario has unfolded 3 times in BTC’s history, shown in the chart below:

  • March 2015 (yellow line – followed by 6 months of rangebound trading)

  • February 2019 (green line – quick bounce)

  • October 2022 (red line – further downside)

A couple observations can be made from this chart:

First, aside from the Covid crash in March 2020, the yellow and green lines marked times where the bottom was close to in, followed by multi-year uptrends

  • 2 years after the yellow line, BTC had rallied ~450%

  • 2 years after the green line, BTC had rallied over 1500%

Second, 2022 was the only time that the price was held below the purple MA for a sustained period

  • Price fell ~25% during the month after the MACD momentum shifted (FTX collapse)

  • Even then, BTC’s 2-year return was over 250%

I’ll reiterate that, using this pattern as a guide, a sustained reversal is not signaled until the MACD momentum shifts. That’s what I’ll be looking for in April from a long-term perspective. It doesn’t have to happen in April, but when it does, we’ll be ready!

Since the last update, the DeFi20 Index is down 4.3%, roughly the same as BTC and slightly more than the overall altcoin index (OTHERS on Tradingview), which is down ~3%.

This week, we’ll touch on specific components of the Index that continue to see momentum – such as CFG, HYPE, and SKY continue to show momentum – as well as others (MORPHO, ZRO) which have gone from solid uptrends to less favorable positions.

DeFi20 Index Leaders

CFG

Far and away the top DeFi20 Index performer over the past week, CFG followed through nicely after last week’s update.

The green line shows where the reversal in MACD unfolded at the same time the price bounced off the purple MA and put in a higher low. Its uptrend remains intact and the price action remains among the strongest in the altcoin space. It also used the yellow MA as support for consecutive days last week, which is important because this MA acts most frequently as support/resistance for assets in general.

HYPE

HYPE remains in an uptrend as well, although its price has fallen since the last update. While the MAs are converging, price still sits just about in the middle of the overall MA range. It will need to show strength to keep this uptrend intact – right now, I’m watching the MACD as a flip in momentum (from dark red to light red) will be a very good sign that we see another leg up to the prior $42 high.

MORPHO and ZRO

Unfortunately, we’ve seen a breakdown in the prices of both MORPHO and ZRO on the daily chart.

MORPHO could not break above the yellow MA resistance and has fallen below the overall MA range. It will take significant strength for it to overcome its position below this range, and it looks like the recent rally will likely end up being a lower high from the Q4 top range of $2-$2.15 (shown in green).

ZRO is also in a tough spot – its price has not fallen as far out of the range as MORPHO, but it will need to bounce from here to have a shot at keep its uptrend alive

Like MORPHO, ZRO was rejected in consecutive days at the yellow MA.

Overall, ZRO must keep the current MACD reversal intact and flip the yellow MA to support. Otherwise, the recent rallies are simply putting in a lower high to its Q4 top as well.

SKY

This week, I’m adding coverage of another DeFi20 component to watch: SKY.

Specifically, SKY has quietly kapt its uptrend alive despite multiple brief breaks below the MA range.

On Saturday (which I marked with the green line), SKY showed resilience as it bounced off the purple MA while also reversing its MACD trend. 

While the MACD reversal wasn’t perfect (the short-term MA broke below 0), it was good enough to signal a price bounce. SKY is also one of the few altcoins that’s managed to stay above its 2025 low so far in 2026 – overall, it’s up nearly 30% for the year.

How to earn yield on xStocks

Tokenized stocks are becoming a dominant narrative in DeFi, and it’s been one that I’ve touched on week after week. xStocks and Ondo are making hundreds of stocks widely available onchain, and they’ve accrued a combined $800M+ in AUM.

For more information on how these projects bring 1:1-backed shares onchain, you can refer to my tokenized stocks article.

The migration of stocks onchain brings unprecedented potential to the asset class. Unlike traditional financial infrastructure, DeFi offers:

  • Permissionlessness – create products/services that are equally accessible around the world

  • Composability – connect products/service with one another (e.g. earn on xStocks via Hibachi exchange)

  • Programmability – customize products/services to fit specific needs (e.g. create streaming rewards to incentivize Morpho users to borrow against their xStocks)

It’s no longer a debate – we’ve recently entered a new era for stocks. And over the past couple months, opportunities have begun to emerge to earn yield onchain.

Today, we’ll look at several ways you can use your stocks in ways that can’t be done in traditional brokerage accounts, including different types of LPing and using them as collateral to borrow stablecoins.

Raydium: Traditional LPing

  • App: Raydium

  • Blockchain: Solana

  • Primary Asset: CRCLx, USDC

  • Deposits: ~$2M

  • APY: ~60%

With ~$1B in pooled assets, Raydium is currently the largest DEX on the Solana network.

Since xStocks mostly “live” on Solana, Raydium has become a popular destination to provide liquidity for traders, and earn fees in the process.

All CRCLx/USDC volume that’s routed through this pool charges traders a 0.1% fee based on their trade volume. Liquidity providers (LPers) get 84% of those fees (12% goes to RAY token buybacks, 4% goes to Raydium treasury).

So, higher volume means more fees are generated, which means LPs make more revenue.

As xStocks continue to gain mindshare and usage, it makes sense that volume would increase, which is why the APY for this pool is currently so high.

In fact, volume last week (Mon-Fri) was extremely high, reaching $20.1M on just ~$1.8M in deposits. That translates to: 

  • $16,884 in fees paid out in just 5 days

  • 0.938% 5-day return on pool assets

  • 97.7% APY

Of course, an APY this high shouldn’t be expected, as last week was an unusually high-volume week for CRCLx. However, if xStock usage continues to grow, this could be a good source of income for the foreseeable future.

Risks to know

Impermanent loss (IL) risk: in any 2-sided pool with uncorrelated assets, the constant rebalancing of the pool automatically lowers the weight of the outperforming asset and increases the weight of the underperforming asset. 

  • For example, if you provide CRCLx/USDC liquidity, you must deposit both assets into the pool. You will likely earn yield while your assets are deposited. However, if the price of CRCLx rallies while your deposit is active, you will lose CRCLx tokens and gain USDC tokens. This is known as impermanent loss, or IL.

  • While this would negatively affect your returns, the LP fees that you earn may be worth the IL.

CLMM risk: This pool is a concentrated liquidity pool, meaning you can provide liquidity when CRCLx is trading at a set range of prices. You only earn fees while CRCLx is trading within that price range.

  • So, for you to earn fees, volume must be generated within your trading range

  • The wider your range, the more time you’re earning fees, but you’re earning at a lower rate

  • The narrower your range, the more fees you earn while you’re earning, but the price of a volatile asset like CRCLx may frequently drift outside of tighter ranges

Byreal: Copy an LP Strategy

When CLMMs first started appearing in DeFi (a trend started by Uniswap v3), there was a subsequent wave of CLMM LP managers to minimize the “CLMM risk” outlined above. These managers would adjust liquidity ranges as the market changed, in order to capture the largest amount of fees possible.

Now, platforms like Byreal are letting anyone broadcast their own LP strategy to the world via their “Real Farmer” feature. When someone posts their LP strategy on Byreal, anyone can deposit their own tokens into the same pool and earn the same APY (and IL) as the manager. 

Note that this process doesn’t involve transferring your tokens to the manager. All positions that are managed according to any given strategy are held within a shared pool, and “copiers” can deposit and withdraw their funds independently of the manager’s actions.

Here’s a look at the top CRCLx/USDC pools that are currently live:

One thing to note here is the “Range” column, which shows the price range in which the pool earns fees. This range is decided by the pool manager and can be changed at any time. 

As I explained above, there are benefits to using both wide and narrow ranges for volatile assets. Some (like the top pool) aim to earn fees at a wide range of prices. 

However, the second pool seems to be mismanaged, as it's programmed to only accrue fees when CRCLx is trading between 500-1000 USDC. Unsurprisingly, that pool has no copiers!

Wasabi: Single-Sided LPing

  • App: Wasabi

  • Blockchain: Solana

  • Primary Asset: AAPLx

  • Deposits: ~$20K

  • APY: ~15% (past 7 days, annualized)

Wasabi is a perpetual futures DEX that offers a unique way to earn yield by supplying liquidity. 

Unlike other perps DEX vaults (like Lighter and Avantis, which I covered last week), Hibachi offers individual asset vaults which earn fees paid by traders to borrow funds for leverage.

Among the many individual asset vaults available on Hibachi are those for xStocks. Right now, the most popular xStocks vault is for AAPLx’s 4x leverage market.

The following image is what a trader would see when they go to trade AAPLx:

Near the bottom of the image, you can see the borrow rate at 4x leverage, which is currently 0.0009% per hour. That’s where the AAPLx vault APY comes from.

This hourly rate compounded over a year is 8.2% APY, almost 20x AAPL’s TTM dividend rate.

Risks to know

  • Returns are subject to market volume. Any time you’re providing liquidity, your return will be correlated to volume. If AAPLx has a major move that generates a lot of volume, short term APYs will be high but unsustainable. 

  • Liquidity risk: These vaults have very low liquidity, with AAPLx being the top vault at just $20K in deposits. If larger asset managers decide to use these vaults to generate yield, it could increase the liquidity substantially, which in turn dilutes the APY.

Morpho: Get Paid to Borrow

  • App: Morpho

  • Blockchain: Ethereum

  • Primary Asset: SPYx/AUSD

  • Deposits: ~$14.5M

  • APY: -10% 

Another use case for tokenized stocks is the ability to borrow against them permissionlessly and on your terms. While this doesn’t always earn yield, being able to borrow against your stocks isn’t an option for many investors in traditional brokerage accounts. 

Earlier this week, Flowdesk launched a vault on Morpho (the #2 lending DeFi app with ~$11M in AUM) which is currently paying depositors almost 10% to borrow AUSD (Agora’s stablecoin) against SPYx.

Clearly, this type of yield is not sustainable, and it is likely due to some form of added incentives by xStocks or Agora – although neither has disclosed these specific incentives publicly. However, it makes for a rare opportunity while it lasts!

Risks to know

  • Collateral risk: Currently, the LTV on this market is 86%, which is extremely high for borrowing against a volatile asset like SPYx. If the S&P 500 experiences a sharp move down, it can result in liquidations of high-LTV positions. 

  • Curator risk: This credit market is part of the larger Flowdesk AUSD RWA Strategy Vault. While there are currently no other strategies deployed in the vault, depositors should be aware of Flowdesk’s risk management procedures and how negative events in various markets may affect one another’s health. Flowdesk has given more details on the vault on their website and Morpho’s governance forum.

That’s all for this week’s Mid-Week Market Check!

I would love to hear your thoughts on the markets, DeFi20, or yield opportunities down in the comments below. Or, feel free to email me at [email protected].

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